Simulation Parameters
e.g. 150.50 for AAPL at $150.50
Historical ~10% for S&P
Large-cap ~20โ30%
100โ2,000
Set your parameters and click
Run Simulation to see price paths
Run thousands of future price path simulations using Geometric Brownian Motion โ the same model used by investment banks. Understand your real probability of hitting your target, not just a single misleading forecast.
Set your parameters and click
Run Simulation to see price paths
Each simulated path follows GBM: S(t+dt) = S(t) ร exp((ฮผ โ ฯยฒ/2)dt + ฯโdt ร Z), where Z is a random draw from a standard normal distribution. This models the random walk of stock prices while preserving the statistical properties observed in real markets.
A single "expected" price projection hides enormous uncertainty. Monte Carlo maps the full distribution of possible outcomes โ the 5th percentile shows your realistic downside, and the 95th shows your upside. Retail investors who only see one number routinely underestimate risk.
Expected return: use the stock's historical annual return or your DCF-derived target. Volatility: use the stock's historical 1-year volatility or implied volatility from options. Higher volatility = wider the distribution of outcomes. For UK stocks, FTSE 100 averages ~15% volatility, individual stocks 20โ40%.